Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 823 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 823 BUF 05:49 → BWI 07:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3719 BUF 15:35 → BWI 17:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 823 Southwest	BUF 05:49	BWI 07:16	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 824 Southwest	BUF 07:15	BWI 08:40	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 826 Southwest	BUF 09:10	BWI 10:40	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1466 Southwest	BUF 12:25	BWI 13:50	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3719 Southwest	BUF 15:35	BWI 17:05	14%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON