Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5096 BUF 05:31 → DCA 07:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5237 BUF 17:02 → DCA 18:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5096 PSA	BUF 05:31	DCA 07:02	6%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 4647 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:46	DCA 13:20	9%	3%	0.7%	43%
AA 5051 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BUF 14:27	DCA 16:06	14%	9%	1.8%	90%
OH 5237 PSA	BUF 17:02	DCA 18:40	16%	9%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON