tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1727 United Flight history → BUF 09:00 DEN 10:35 11% 3% 0.6% 86%
WN 665 Southwest BUF 15:55 DEN 17:38 21% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 2h 44m Philadelphia PHL 09:30 → DEN 11:39AA 1313 8h 19m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 58m Detroit DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113 5h 18m 91% 82%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25B6 716 1h 43m Boston BOS 09:08 → DEN 11:50B6 393 7h 50m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519 7h 40m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543 3h 15m Chicago ORD 11:07 → DEN 12:50UA 2857 7h 49m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 51m Charlotte CLT 10:52 → DEN 12:27AA 1662 8h 26m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → BUF 19:52 → IAD 21:15UA 4270 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 08m Dulles IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495 6h 38m 84% 71%
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 3h 22m Chicago ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974 8h 28m 93% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 47m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DEN 21:22UA 329 5h 18m 41% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON