tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 882 American Flight history → BUF 07:01 DFW 09:25 10% 4% 1.1% 87%
AA 1724 American Flight history → BUF 16:46 DFW 19:10 29% 12% 2.9% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 1h 42m Philadelphia PHL 08:28 → DFW 11:07AA 3307 6h 47m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:58 → BOS 07:51AA 4788 · flown by Republic 1h 10m Boston BOS 09:01 → DFW 12:19AA 479 7h 21m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414 7h 37m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BUF 11:46 → DCA 13:20AA 4647 · flown by Republic 1h 53m Washington DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 6h 58m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543 2h 37m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:13UA 441 7h 12m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 1h 11m Charlotte CLT 09:12 → DFW 10:58AA 575 5h 57m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 58m New York LGA 08:30 → DFW 11:15DL 873 6h 10m 87% 75%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 53m Detroit DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746 4h 55m 89% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 47m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 5h 32m 41% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON