tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 27m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 21m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543 2h 59m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 7h 16m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697 6h 44m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:18 → ATL 19:29DL 2266 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527 6h 28m 95% 67%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 2h 27m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 6h 49m 88% 65%
UnitedDetails → BUF 19:52 → IAD 21:15UA 4270 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 28m Dulles IAD 22:43 → EWR 23:53UA 1997 4h 01m 90% 65%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:58 → ORD 09:03AA 1195 1h 08m Chicago ORD 10:11 → EWR 13:35AA 2416 5h 37m 88% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 1h 04m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 5h 35m 73% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON