tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 865 at 07:00, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 865 JetBlue Flight history → BUF 07:00 FLL 10:11 19% 5% 6.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 3h 43m New York LGA 11:15 → FLL 14:18DL 1181 8h 13m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 23m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670 7h 27m 100% 70%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:18 → ATL 19:29DL 2266 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 7h 21m 98% 67%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543 3h 08m Chicago ORD 11:00 → FLL 15:14UA 279 8h 13m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → BUF 10:44 → PHL 12:10AA 5925 · flown by Piedmont 1h 43m Philadelphia PHL 13:53 → FLL 16:54AA 2718 6h 10m 92% 67%
AmericanDetails → BUF 14:44 → PHL 16:14AA 6041 · flown by Piedmont 2h 25m Philadelphia PHL 18:39 → FLL 21:38AA 2462 6h 54m 93% 66%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:44 → FLL 16:49AA 1373 9h 48m 99% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → BUF 16:01 → JFK 17:29B6 2901 47m New York JFK 18:16 → FLL 21:18B6 1801 5h 17m 54% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON