tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G7 4192 GoJet BUF 10:08 IAD 11:36 11% 3% 1.2% no record
G7 4170 GoJet BUF 19:57 IAD 21:30 18% 6% 2.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727 1h 51m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 8h 58m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543 3h 14m Chicago ORD 11:06 → IAD 14:05UA 1486 7h 04m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 40m Detroit DTW 10:22 → IAD 11:47DL 3082 5h 18m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:18 → ATL 19:29DL 2266 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 23m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → BUF 16:30 → CLT 18:25AA 2442 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 21:15 → IAD 22:42AA 2608 6h 12m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → BUF 12:55 → CLT 14:50AA 1203 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA 4h 52m 87% 71%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → IAD 14:26AA 524 7h 25m 85% 68%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 3h 03m Chicago ORD 22:06 → IAD 00:47 +1UA 1922 6h 43m 89% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON