Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 2001 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–34%.

Safest bet that day B6 2001 BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 2901 BUF 16:01 → JFK 17:29 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 2001 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 06:40	JFK 08:05	10%	4%	1.2%	86%
B6 1901 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 11:26	JFK 12:57	19%	9%	1.9%	80%
YX 9931 Republic	BUF 15:25	JFK 17:14	21%	11%	1.5%	no record
B6 201 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 20:06	JFK 21:34	32%	14%	1.7%	68%
B6 2901 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 16:01	JFK 17:29	34%	16%	1.9%	78%worse than usual
DL 5223 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 10:25	JFK 11:52	12%	4%	2.6%	88%
DL 5284 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 07:00	JFK 08:30	14%	5%	3.9%	86%
DL 5296 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 15:50	JFK 17:30	20%	7%	11.1%	80%
DL 5250 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 20:09	JFK 21:49	22%	11%	9.5%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON