tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Philadelphia, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 1h 40m Philadelphia PHL 08:26 → LAX 11:14AA 824 8h 54m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:58 → BOS 07:51AA 4788 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Boston BOS 10:32 → LAX 13:40AA 2141 10h 42m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 8h 55m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727 2h 51m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 8h 57m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → BUF 10:25 → JFK 11:52DL 5223 · flown by Endeavor 3h 07m New York JFK 14:59 → LAX 17:44DL 771 10h 19m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500 10h 14m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 2h 38m New York JFK 11:08 → LAX 13:51DL 1905 9h 51m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → BUF 10:44 → PHL 12:10AA 5925 · flown by Piedmont 3h 42m Philadelphia PHL 15:52 → LAX 18:29AA 2225 10h 45m 96% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 1h 00m Chicago ORD 20:03 → LAX 22:15UA 1967 7h 11m 69% 48%
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 26m 64% 47%
AmericanDetails → BUF 19:40 → PHL 21:10AA 6114 · flown by Piedmont 49m Philadelphia PHL 21:59 → LAX 00:45 +1AA 3235 8h 05m 62% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON