Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5820 BUF 05:53 → LGA 07:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5797 BUF 14:06 → LGA 15:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5820 Republic	BUF 05:53	LGA 07:34	3%	2%	1.4%	no record
YX 4614 Republic	BUF 06:58	LGA 08:35	4%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 4363 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:51	LGA 13:21	9%	4%	2.1%	89%
YX 5797 Republic	BUF 14:06	LGA 15:36	13%	6%	2.1%	no record
DL 4670 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 06:05	LGA 07:30	13%	5%	3.8%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON