Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 834 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 834 BUF 05:36 → MCO 08:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 657 BUF 17:10 → MCO 20:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 834 Southwest	BUF 05:36	MCO 08:19	5%	1%	4.7%	no record
WN 908 Southwest	BUF 10:25	MCO 13:16	11%	2%	15.5%	no record
B6 85 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 08:42	MCO 11:22	16%	6%	6.3%	85%
WN 657 Southwest	BUF 17:10	MCO 20:01	22%	7%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON