Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4547 Southwest	BUF 08:46	MDW 09:29	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3086 Southwest	BUF 16:50	MDW 17:45	15%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 42m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BUF 17:18 → ATL 19:29DL 2266	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 57m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m	95%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON