Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 16:54, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1749 Delta	BUF 16:54	MSP 18:27	13%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 25m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 31m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor	2h 38m New York	LGA 10:10 → MSP 12:11DL 2409	7h 06m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 50m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	7h 59m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	BUF 17:18 → ATL 19:29DL 2266	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	8h 21m	99%	83%
United Details →	BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 10:46 → MSP 12:21UA 215	6h 20m	98%	80%
American Details →	BUF 07:58 → ORD 09:03AA 1195	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 11:49 → MSP 13:55AA 2448	6h 57m	95%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747	54m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	4h 37m	58%	43%
Delta Details →	BUF 15:50 → JFK 17:31DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	49m New York	JFK 18:20 → MSP 21:00DL 4933 · flown by Endeavor	6h 10m	75%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON