Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 543 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 543 BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 856 BUF 18:54 → ORD 20:06 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 543 United Flight history →	BUF 07:01	ORD 07:52	14%	5%	0.7%	85%
UA 1651 United	BUF 10:43	ORD 11:38	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1195 American Flight history →	BUF 07:58	ORD 09:03	17%	5%	0.9%	88%
YX 4751 Republic	BUF 12:07	ORD 13:12	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 2747 United Flight history →	BUF 18:04	ORD 19:03	31%	10%	1.0%	63%
OO 4741 SkyWest	BUF 14:00	ORD 14:54	33%	11%	1.8%	no record
AA 856 American	BUF 18:54	ORD 20:06	37%	9%	1.9%	no record
UA 4381 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 13:54	ORD 14:55	27%	16%	2.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON