Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: PT 5861 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day PT 5861 BUF 06:02 → PHL 07:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5836 BUF 17:23 → PHL 18:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5861 Piedmont	BUF 06:02	PHL 07:26	9%	4%	1.3%	no record
PT 5933 Piedmont	BUF 10:48	PHL 12:20	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
PT 5800 Piedmont	BUF 13:13	PHL 14:43	16%	6%	1.6%	no record
PT 5836 Piedmont	BUF 17:23	PHL 18:55	21%	8%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON