tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153 7h 36m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543 1h 28m Chicago ORD 09:20 → RSW 13:15UA 1036 6h 14m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124 6h 39m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:18 → ATL 19:29DL 2266 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217 7h 05m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 56m Detroit DTW 08:38 → RSW 11:33DL 2001 5h 04m 89% 70%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05B6 2001 3h 32m New York JFK 11:37 → RSW 14:50B6 2129 8h 10m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:58 → ORD 09:03AA 1195 3h 10m Chicago ORD 12:13 → RSW 16:18AA 2561 8h 20m 96% 67%
AmericanDetails → BUF 16:30 → CLT 18:25AA 2442 2h 31m Charlotte CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52AA 1176 6h 22m 97% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON