tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 635 at 11:04, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 635 JetBlue Flight history → BUF 11:04 SJU 15:26 28% 7% 0.9% 85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 2h 48m Philadelphia PHL 09:34 → SJU 13:42AA 614 8h 22m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 53m Detroit DTW 08:35 → SJU 13:11DL 1913 6h 42m 89% 74%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05B6 2001 1h 55m New York JFK 10:00 → SJU 14:14B6 503 7h 34m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 49m 97% 71%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25B6 716 1h 45m Boston BOS 09:10 → SJU 13:11B6 861 7h 11m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543 57m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 7h 43m 84% 67%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:50 → JFK 17:31DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 1h 58m New York JFK 19:29 → SJU 23:53DL 1859 8h 03m 94% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON