tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 671 at 18:00, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 671 Southwest BUF 18:00 TPA 20:55 18% 7% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 21m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 6h 39m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:01 → ORD 07:52UA 543 3h 27m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 11m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → BUF 11:46 → DCA 13:20AA 4647 · flown by Republic 2h 32m Washington DCA 15:52 → TPA 18:29AA 1944 6h 43m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 10:33 → TPA 12:25AA 436 6h 24m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:16 → TPA 18:49DL 1594 6h 33m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUF 11:05 → JFK 12:22DL 5223 · flown by Endeavor 2h 08m New York JFK 14:30 → TPA 17:41DL 2093 6h 36m 97% 74%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25B6 716 3h 52m Boston BOS 11:17 → TPA 14:51B6 791 8h 51m 100% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:18 → ATL 19:29DL 2266 51m Atlanta ATL 20:20 → TPA 21:54DL 3135 4h 36m 56% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON