Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:44 → ABQ 17:33DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:55 → ABQ 22:40DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest	4h 46m	92%	86%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	2h 59m Denver	DEN 19:15 → ABQ 20:39UA 484	6h 51m	98%	72%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:27 → ABQ 15:22AA 3053	7h 21m	97%	66%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 28m San Francisco	SFO 16:41 → ABQ 20:05UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest	5h 20m	78%	62%
American Details →	BUR 12:31 → DFW 17:50AA 1208	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:24 → ABQ 22:23AA 1321	8h 52m	97%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON