Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 483 Delta Flight history →	BUR 13:55	ATL 21:42	23%	9%	1.8%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	9h 20m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	8h 23m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	9h 22m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	8h 40m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	BUR 10:51 → SEA 13:23AS 1388	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 16:05 → ATL 23:47AS 1645	9h 56m	94%	70%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:25 → ATL 16:43AA 2398	6h 42m	89%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON