Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:11 → AUS 17:03DL 2689	8h 03m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	6h 55m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 03m Portland	PDX 10:30 → AUS 16:38AS 540	7h 29m	94%	76%
United Details →	BUR 11:12 → SFO 12:40UA 2386	3h 46m San Francisco	SFO 16:26 → AUS 22:05UA 2150	8h 53m	99%	76%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	2h 23m Denver	DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942	7h 09m	95%	75%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	3h 03m San Francisco	SFO 18:16 → AUS 23:50UA 2332	8h 05m	97%	74%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:32AS 491	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 11:43 → AUS 17:42AS 502	8h 42m	98%	66%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:38 → AUS 15:50AA 2103	6h 49m	98%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 13m San Francisco	SFO 16:26 → AUS 22:05UA 2150	6h 20m	71%	54%
United Details →	BUR 11:12 → SFO 12:40UA 2386	47m San Francisco	SFO 13:27 → AUS 19:09UA 1116	5h 57m	55%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON