Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1270 at 07:09, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1270 Southwest	BUR 07:09	BNA 13:18	6%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 19:19 → BNA 23:30DL 2317	8h 55m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 03m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BNA 17:00AS 1376	7h 51m	94%	74%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	1h 14m Denver	DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300	6h 25m	90%	69%
United Details →	BUR 11:12 → SFO 12:40UA 2386	1h 50m San Francisco	SFO 14:30 → BNA 21:03UA 433	7h 51m	88%	68%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:07 → BNA 16:11AA 1181	7h 10m	96%	62%
Delta Details →	BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BNA 22:58DL 3121	7h 03m	79%	61%
American Details →	BUR 12:31 → DFW 17:50AA 1208	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 3230	7h 39m	92%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON