tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3283 at 17:36, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3283 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → BUR 17:36 BOI 20:43 11% 6% 0.8% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 21:21 → BOI 22:40DL 4446 · flown by SkyWest 4h 46m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → BOI 12:23DL 2095 4h 23m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → BOI 16:13DL 2920 5h 28m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 17:41 → BOI 18:58DL 2111 5h 23m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 16m Portland PDX 10:43 → BOI 13:00AS 329 4h 51m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 3h 12m Denver DEN 19:28 → BOI 21:29UA 2014 7h 41m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:32AS 491 3h 21m Seattle SEA 12:53 → BOI 15:16AS 467 7h 16m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 29m San Francisco SFO 16:42 → BOI 19:44UA 5720 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 76% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON