Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 857 BUR 07:14 → DEN 10:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2187 BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 857 Southwest	BUR 07:14	DEN 10:48	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1718 Southwest	BUR 09:59	DEN 13:28	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 859 Southwest	BUR 12:14	DEN 15:43	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1899 United	BUR 08:58	DEN 12:19	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2187 United Flight history →	BUR 12:48	DEN 16:16	14%	7%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON