Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2599 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2599 American Flight history →	BUR 07:01	DFW 12:19	13%	5%	1.8%	92%
AA 1208 American Flight history →	BUR 12:31	DFW 17:50	37%	12%	2.2%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	3h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → DFW 17:23DL 2811	8h 23m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:32AS 491	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 12:13 → DFW 18:21AS 549	9h 21m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	6h 48m	98%	65%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	2h 34m Denver	DEN 18:50 → DFW 21:56UA 1565	7h 08m	96%	64%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 16:58 → DFW 22:35UA 1336	6h 50m	84%	58%
United Details →	BUR 11:12 → SFO 12:40UA 2386	1h 40m San Francisco	SFO 14:20 → DFW 20:00UA 775	6h 48m	83%	57%
Frontier Details →	BUR 13:14 → LAS 14:39F9 4108	3h 21m Las Vegas	LAS 18:00 → DFW 22:56F9 1948	7h 42m	98%	56%
Delta Details →	BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483	58m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → DFW 23:59DL 818	8h 04m	75%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON