Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3259 at 12:21, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3259 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 12:21	EUG 14:35	18%	7%	1.1%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	98%	86%
United Details →	BUR 11:12 → SFO 12:40UA 2386	3h 55m San Francisco	SFO 16:35 → EUG 18:17UA 502	7h 05m	99%	75%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	3h 19m Denver	DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303	8h 33m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON