Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 11:12, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2080 Southwest	BUR 08:39	HNL 11:34	18%	4%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638	10h 58m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	10h 19m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 03m Portland	PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813	9h 19m	94%	64%
United Details →	BUR 11:12 → SFO 12:40UA 2386	1h 35m San Francisco	SFO 14:15 → HNL 16:29UA 300	8h 17m	80%	61%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:32 → HNL 16:37AA 115	12h 36m	91%	58%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:31AS 491	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → HNL 15:04AS 899	11h 04m	98%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON