tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAD 19:44DL 847 9h 44m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUR 11:12 → SFO 12:40UA 2386 3h 54m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 10h 43m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 25m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:58 +1UA 2837 9h 16m 91% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 44m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 44m 93% 75%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 10:51 → SEA 13:23AS 1388 2h 49m Seattle SEA 16:12 → IAD 23:46AS 366 9h 55m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 46m 83% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 21:18 → IAD 05:15 +1UA 705 7h 33m 74% 66%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 21m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 8h 10m 75% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON