tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 7h 15m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → BUR 11:12 → SFO 12:40UA 2386 4h 00m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → IAH 22:52UA 2305 9h 40m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 3h 19m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 8h 18m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 2h 04m San Francisco SFO 17:17 → IAH 23:07UA 1649 7h 22m 91% 74%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 8h 02m 80% 63%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:32AS 491 1h 20m Seattle SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438 8h 16m 94% 62%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:32 → IAH 15:50AA 9748 6h 49m 97% 61%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:31 → DFW 17:50AA 1208 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 7h 53m 97% 47%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:31 → DFW 17:50AA 1208 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 23m 41% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON