Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	3h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IND 18:54DL 2228	8h 54m	99%	83%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	1h 37m Denver	DEN 17:53 → IND 22:30UA 1199	6h 42m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → IND 00:20 +1DL 2657	7h 25m	78%	60%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:08 → IND 19:31AA 1413	9h 30m	99%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUR 12:31 → DFW 17:50AA 1208	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → IND 22:26AA 2784	6h 55m	71%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON