Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3870 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3870 BUR 08:24 → LAS 09:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4108 BUR 13:14 → LAS 14:39 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3870 Southwest	BUR 08:24	LAS 09:54	6%	3%	1.4%	no record
WN 864 Southwest	BUR 09:54	LAS 11:14	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 4474 Southwest	BUR 10:54	LAS 12:03	13%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 1701 Southwest	BUR 13:19	LAS 14:39	17%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 3186 Southwest	BUR 15:34	LAS 16:54	21%	11%	1.5%	no record
WN 4476 Southwest	BUR 17:19	LAS 18:39	22%	14%	2.4%	no record
WN 873 Southwest	BUR 18:26	LAS 19:42	23%	14%	2.1%	no record
F9 4108 Frontier Flight history →	BUR 13:14	LAS 14:39	26%	9%	2.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON