Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 12:48, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	1h 04m Denver	DEN 17:20 → LGA 23:13UA 2033	7h 25m	87%	71%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:58 → LGA 19:37AA 2434	9h 36m	98%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:05 → LGA 17:45AA 672	7h 44m	74%	50%
American Details →	BUR 12:31 → DFW 17:50AA 1208	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:57 → LGA 23:37AA 1375	8h 06m	67%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON