Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:54, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 46m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	8h 00m	83%	58%
American Details →	BUR 12:31 → DFW 17:50AA 1208	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090	8h 32m	91%	53%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:06 → MIA 20:05AA 942	10h 04m	99%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON