Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1031 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1031 BUR 07:04 → OAK 08:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 910 BUR 15:17 → OAK 16:32 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1031 Southwest	BUR 07:04	OAK 08:39	3%	1%	1.4%	no record
WN 473 Southwest	BUR 08:29	OAK 09:59	5%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 884 Southwest	BUR 11:24	OAK 13:04	6%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 1371 Southwest	BUR 13:29	OAK 14:59	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 249 Southwest	BUR 17:59	OAK 19:29	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 910 Southwest	BUR 15:17	OAK 16:32	15%	3%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON