Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 562 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:09	PDX 09:27	8%	2%	1.2%	96%
AS 1509 Alaska	BUR 10:25	PDX 12:43	12%	3%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	5h 10m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373	5h 44m	96%	84%
Alaska Details →	BUR 12:21 → EUG 14:35AS 3259 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Eugene	EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:47AS 2077 · flown by Horizon	4h 26m	91%	84%
Delta Details →	BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	6h 24m	98%	82%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	3h 14m Denver	DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498	8h 27m	98%	79%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	3h 43m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:43UA 1227	6h 58m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:32AS 491	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → PDX 13:08AS 488	6h 08m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON