Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 893 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 893 BUR 08:29 → PHX 10:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6246 BUR 16:46 → PHX 18:33 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 893 Southwest	BUR 08:29	PHX 10:13	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 4737 Southwest	BUR 10:59	PHX 12:43	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
MQ 4220 Envoy	BUR 10:05	PHX 11:39	14%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 897 Southwest	BUR 13:25	PHX 14:54	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 900 Southwest	BUR 18:49	PHX 20:27	15%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 898 Southwest	BUR 16:19	PHX 18:03	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 6246 SkyWest	BUR 16:46	PHX 18:33	23%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON