Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3224 at 08:20, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3224 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 08:20	RDM 10:46	8%	4%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:45 → RDM 22:32DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest	5h 38m	96%	90%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	3h 13m Denver	DEN 19:29 → RDM 21:05UA 1588	8h 17m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	BUR 10:51 → SEA 13:23AS 1388	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → RDM 17:48AS 3435 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	94%	74%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:32AS 491	1h 54m Seattle	SEA 11:26 → RDM 12:29AS 275	5h 29m	96%	67%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 34m San Francisco	SFO 16:47 → RDM 18:27UA 2418	4h 42m	80%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON