tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 697 at 18:04, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 697 Southwest BUR 18:04 RNO 19:35 12% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 09m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → RNO 21:57DL 1607 5h 03m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 3h 09m Denver DEN 19:25 → RNO 20:50UA 719 8h 02m 98% 75%
FrontierDetails → BUR 13:14 → LAS 14:39F9 4108 2h 04m Las Vegas LAS 16:43 → RNO 18:14F9 4241 5h 00m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 24m San Francisco SFO 18:37 → RNO 19:42UA 581 5h 57m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 18m San Francisco SFO 22:28 → RNO 23:33UA 1757 4h 51m 90% 67%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 10:51 → SEA 13:23AS 1388 3h 44m Seattle SEA 17:07 → RNO 18:54AS 598 8h 03m 94% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON