Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 491 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–35%.

Safest bet that day AS 491 BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 1675 BUR 16:52 → SEA 19:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 491 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:00	SEA 09:32	18%	3%	2.1%	87%
AS 1388 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 10:51	SEA 13:23	21%	4%	1.9%	93%worse than usual
AS 1496 Alaska	BUR 14:22	SEA 16:43	27%	6%	1.4%	no record
AS 1675 Alaska	BUR 16:52	SEA 19:25	35%	7%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON