Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1146 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1146 BUR 07:19 → SFO 08:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 520 BUR 09:24 → SFO 10:48 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1146 Southwest	BUR 07:19	SFO 08:55	12%	4%	2.1%	no record
WN 1313 Southwest	BUR 16:59	SFO 18:35	25%	12%	1.5%	no record
UA 1066 United	BUR 16:12	SFO 17:55	28%	14%	0.8%	no record
UA 1508 United Flight history →	BUR 18:42	SFO 20:10	28%	15%	0.8%	41%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	BUR 11:12	SFO 12:40	33%	11%	0.8%	52%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	36%	13%	0.8%	66%
UA 520 United	BUR 09:24	SFO 10:48	41%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON