Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 930 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 930 BUR 07:39 → SMF 09:20 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 542 BUR 18:59 → SMF 20:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 930 Southwest	BUR 07:39	SMF 09:20	2%	1%	1.4%	no record
WN 931 Southwest	BUR 11:04	SMF 12:35	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 932 Southwest	BUR 13:24	SMF 15:05	11%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 1147 Southwest	BUR 16:14	SMF 17:50	12%	6%	1.1%	no record
WN 542 Southwest	BUR 18:59	SMF 20:26	13%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON