tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1534 Southwest BWI 14:15 ABQ 16:35 18% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:16UA 2012 2h 46m Denver DEN 21:02 → ABQ 22:30UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 8h 07m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 3h 48m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 9h 27m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ABQ 15:07DL 1109 8h 51m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 05m Denver DEN 13:30 → ABQ 14:57UA 1594 8h 27m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → ABQ 10:20DL 1004 6h 20m 91% 78%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:37 → CLT 09:08AA 2670 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:18 → ABQ 12:58AA 3319 7h 21m 90% 78%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:06 → ABQ 13:56AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 8h 26m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 17:46 → ABQ 19:05DL 8790 6h 49m 94% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON