Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 191 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 191 BWI 08:15 → ATL 10:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4537 BWI 21:23 → ATL 23:37 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 191 Southwest	BWI 08:15	ATL 10:18	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	BWI 11:44	ATL 13:37	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2950 Delta Flight history →	BWI 06:00	ATL 07:50	10%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	BWI 14:16	ATL 16:14	12%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2562 Delta Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ATL 10:13	12%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2579 Delta Flight history →	BWI 07:28	ATL 09:20	15%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 1162 Southwest	BWI 14:31	ATL 16:27	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	BWI 16:54	ATL 19:00	19%	6%	2.2%	78%
WN 946 Southwest	BWI 17:55	ATL 19:58	20%	6%	1.3%	no record
F9 2633 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 06:35	ATL 09:00	22%	5%	0.9%	77%
F9 4427 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:17	ATL 12:31	22%	6%	0.9%	76%
F9 4537 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:23	ATL 23:37	24%	10%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON