Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 950 BWI 07:09 → BDL 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 445 BWI 15:25 → BDL 16:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 950 Southwest	BWI 07:09	BDL 08:25	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1277 Southwest	BWI 10:35	BDL 11:59	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 954 Southwest	BWI 00:28	BDL 01:45	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1333 Southwest	BWI 13:45	BDL 15:09	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 445 Southwest	BWI 15:25	BDL 16:49	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON