Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Birmingham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 10m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → BHM 13:25DL 3012	6h 09m	99%	84%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 09:07 → BHM 09:47AA 5043 · flown by PSA	5h 46m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 16:39 → BHM 17:43DL 3062	6h 10m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:04 → BHM 15:05DL 3163	4h 21m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → BHM 19:01DL 3044	5h 45m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 16:54 → ATL 19:00DL 2799	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → BHM 22:34DL 2034	6h 40m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	51m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → BHM 09:33DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest	4h 25m	91%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	46m Denver	DEN 11:11 → BHM 14:58UA 447	7h 28m	65%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON