Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4883 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4883 BWI 06:14 → BNA 07:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 961 BWI 17:45 → BNA 18:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4883 Southwest	BWI 06:14	BNA 07:13	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4738 Southwest	BWI 08:15	BNA 09:25	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3196 Southwest	BWI 10:30	BNA 11:33	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 960 Southwest	BWI 14:25	BNA 15:38	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 961 Southwest	BWI 17:45	BNA 18:48	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON