Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5813 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 5813 BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 952 BWI 16:45 → BOS 18:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5813 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 06:21	BOS 08:00	3%	1%	0.7%	97%
WN 4970 Southwest	BWI 06:40	BOS 08:24	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3803 Southwest	BWI 10:40	BOS 12:24	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 892 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:30	BOS 09:58	7%	1%	0.7%	56%
DL 5668 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 13:50	BOS 15:48	9%	4%	0.7%	80%
WN 2091 Southwest	BWI 00:15	BOS 01:43	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 803 Southwest	BWI 13:45	BOS 15:29	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3828 Southwest	BWI 20:30	BOS 22:14	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 952 Southwest	BWI 16:45	BOS 18:29	25%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON