tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483 9h 56m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 55m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 84% 77%
UnitedDetails → BWI 07:59 → SFO 10:58UA 2192 2h 52m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 10h 18m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53AS 786 3h 25m Seattle SEA 13:18 → BUR 15:48AS 529 11h 45m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:16UA 2012 54m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 7h 17m 77% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 50m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 18m 75% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON