tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 972 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 972 Southwest BWI 10:35 CLE 12:04 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1286 Southwest BWI 20:35 CLE 22:04 17% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 1h 55m Boston BOS 09:55 → CLE 12:00DL 5641 · flown by Republic 5h 39m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:49 → CLE 13:35DL 775 6h 07m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → CLE 15:29DL 2545 7h 13m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749 3h 35m Chicago ORD 13:05 → CLE 15:28UA 1878 7h 12m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 56m Detroit DTW 08:35 → CLE 09:37DL 5392 · flown by Endeavor 3h 29m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → CLE 19:35DL 2750 5h 19m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → BWI 16:54 → ATL 19:00DL 2799 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:02 → CLE 23:56DL 651 7h 02m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:37 → CLT 09:08AA 2670 1h 49m Charlotte CLT 10:57 → CLE 12:35AA 848 4h 58m 90% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → BWI 06:35 → ATL 09:00F9 2633 56m Atlanta ATL 09:56 → CLE 11:49F9 2410 5h 14m 73% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON