Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1708 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1708 BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3121 BWI 19:08 → CLT 20:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1708 American Flight history →	BWI 05:01	CLT 06:25	7%	3%	0.8%	96%
AA 1216 American	BWI 10:36	CLT 12:06	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 560 Southwest	BWI 08:21	CLT 09:48	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2670 American Flight history →	BWI 07:37	CLT 09:08	15%	3%	0.7%	95%
WN 4594 Southwest	BWI 18:05	CLT 19:44	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1531 American	BWI 14:53	CLT 16:25	24%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 3121 American	BWI 19:08	CLT 20:37	25%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON